Well I expect that what they have said about progress at Mt Morgan is the truth and the guidance downgrade has more to do with the reduced production from the first half of the year ramp up and lower grades at Jupiter. If 160,000ozs is the downgrade, it leaves guidance for the second half of 2019FY in line with the 2016 feasibilty production estimates, suggesting the statements they made a month ago about Westralia running in line with feasibilty were true and remain true and their targeting of a $1,000/oz margin is pretty much uneffected.
If there are no nasty suprises and the price get punished then it's a strong buy IMO.
We know why you are here, you said it yourself. You can keep your $550 MC company with 698kozs of reserves who are targeting 1Mozs of reserves......lol. Your company has between aboutb 3.5 years and 6 years of reserves and most of that remains uncosted via publically announced feasibility studies or mine plans (investors are flying blind).
As far as structural complexity goes at Westralia, judging by the shape of the open pit and the block models of the orebodies that lie beneath it, the deposits seems to me to have a pretty predictable large scale planar geometry and that is part of the reason I was attracted to the project. Compare that to the high grade portion of the mineralisation that exists UG at Edna May which is confined two steeply plunging ore shoots . Westralia has lots of stike extent and many many more ozs of high grade gold per vertical metre than EM (a simple and undisputable fact). That's why the resource at Westralia is so much bigger than at Edna May. Westralia's M&I resources are 998kozs @5.2g/t compared to 77kozs at 6.7g/t at Edna May modelled between 250 and 450m below surface. Yes you read that right, only 77kozs of resource down to a depth of 450m below surface at EM, with a resource 13 x smaller than Westralia.
The folding looks to be localised to tight folding within the BIF units themselves which may be advantageous as it may have created conditions for higher ore grades to have developed. You can see the tight folding within the BIF unit (which I've marked up and highlighed in yellow in the image below) on the 37g/t ore heading photo shown in the February presentation. Good try though.
Storm in a retail holders tea cup IMO. Not long now to see what the story really is. Esh
DCN Price at posting:
$2.45 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held