Ann: Trading Halt, page-103

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binwood

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23/03/19

11:37

Post #: 37860985
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Originally posted by eshmun ↑

"huge miss"

Huge miss does not mean much, it is the reason for the miss which is important and I don't really view it as a miss at all. More misjudgment for not declaring the miss earlier.

Sept 2018 Q production (ramp up phase - ie not commercial production) = 29,316oz

Dec 2018 Q production (ramp up phase - ie not commercial production) = 37,934oz

Company comment on Dec 2018 production
"41,229 ounces mined during the December quarter with 40,775 ounces processed delivering production of 37,934 ounces (93% recovery), in line with Company expectations"

Fisrt half 2019FY production =67,250oz total

If guidance is 160,000oz as per post above and the Australian report, that will be 92,750oz for the second half of the 2019FY.

Most of the production for the March quarter was commercial production except the first 9 days.

So if you double the guided second half production based on the above (ie the actual production represented by commercial production alone) you get 185,550ozs which is within the original guidance range

and absolutely in line with the "original" 2016 feasibilty study which said

"Initial 8 year treatment schedule produces an average 186k oz per annum for the first 4 years"

It is not the size of the miss, it's the reason for the miss that is importnat and I think that part of the reason is already obvious from the above. We have been ramping up for 6 out of the 12 months of the year in question.

I haven't read the Australian article yet but based on that one 160koz number alone it looks like most comments here are storms in a tea cup.

Nothing to see here ladies and gentlemen please move away from the car.

What the instos do with the news will be interesting but this still looks like a buy to me unless some fatal flaw is actually revealed. I'll be looking closely at any more commentary the company might give around the grade at Jupiter. Esh

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Based on what we have seen in the market recently I think it will get punished but it will make a good buying opportunity IMO.

Sub $500m EV for what should be a solid 200koz producer will be value. Provided AISC hasn't blown out of course.

DCN Price at posting: $2.45 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Trading Halt, page-103

Top Stories

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Australian Rare Earths bullish on early-stage uranium potential at Overland, SA

Watchdog takes Webjet to court over alleged 'false' flight prices with hidden fees

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This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game