Baillieu Valuation of VEC, page-296

This is the part I think cfp is missing; VEC is probably closer to turning off the lights than it is "$26billion in profits", with a tight deadline looming and dilution being the only barrier.

That could very quickly change if funding is secured, so I wouldn't call it a tail spin or death spiral, but right now we're approximately 60 days away from a very serious problem, with Magna being a clear red flag.

I'm not suggesting VEC is a lost cause or that the end is nigh, but we're down a lot of SP value with a nasty potential event on the horizon. It could instantly 180 with LT finance being secured (actually secured, not just in name only with a failure to provide funds when needed), but the AK profits are far from a sure thing until finance is sorted.