Hasn't been above $3 since July. Reached $3.60 in June.
Was the equivalent of $3.35 in early 2017 before dropping to $1.55 late in 2017. $1.55! Then climbed rapidly from $1.55 to the high $3s, before jumping up well above $4 for a couple of days in January, then the crash to $3.20, then to $2.82, then it circled between the high $2s and the mid $3s several times before it slumped from $3.07 to the mid $2s a while after the POSCO deal was confirmed and has been lacklustre since, apart from a run from the $2.40s to the $2.80s a while ago.
The trouble is, since the POSCO deal was first announced in June 2018 and sent the SP to $3.60, there has been no good news of substance apart from the Mt. Cattlin upgrade.
That's a fairly long period with only one piece of good news - during a period in which all lithium stocks have had a rough run for a range of reasons, some based on bullsh1t, all temporary.
Management hints at the big news coming, and everyone is waiting. But if it's coming, why is no one getting in now? But of course, the big news *is* coming, because if the statement about receiving several offers on SDV was untrue, there'd be very serious legal implications for management.
They're not in a rush. They don't appear to be in a panic at all. No debt, plenty of cash, plenty of time. Mt Cattlin had a couple of lean quarters but indications are that production is much better this quarter and will be better in the future too.
But it's ugly right now. People want to know what's happening with James Bay, what's happening with SDV, how the optimisation is impacting Mt Cattlin... Of course, there have been updates but it's mostly holding patterns "this is being assessed" (JB), or "we are working through the detail of the offers" (SDV) etc it's an update, but because it's not seen as progress no one is impressed by it.
If I was in a rush to sell I would feel like sh1t, but anyone who can wait a few months (or longer) should be fine. Demand for lithium isn't going to drop, Mt Cattlin isn't going to run dry, SDV is very low-risk now and the deal is coming.
If there as going to be a takeover it would happen now. Pundits described GXY as a takeover target for the same reasons I am confident the SP will come good *this year*, but it hasn't happened below $2. That "low target $1.26" was gibberish, it was the LOWEST prediction and in US dollars - so the worse case scenario was $1.77 Aus. Will GXY stay below $2 for the rest of the year? I'd be astonished if it did. Absolutely gobsmacked. The bulk of analysts see the GXY SP ending up between the low $3s and mid $3s in 2019. They're not infallible, but you can see why they hold that view.
I don't remember people calling GXY a bargain in the high $3s. I definitely called it a bargain in the high $2s. I am slightly in the red now, but not by much so maybe it's easier for me to be more relaxed about it. I certainly understand why people are extremely pissed off.
I used this metaphor before, but management comes across like MS Dhoni in a run chase, very happy to nudge the ball around despite the require run rate going up, always supremely confident that he can finish it with a flurry of sixes when he needs to. It's extremely frustrating to watch.
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