2019 Charts, page-207

Bit of a ramble, but the questions you raise are valid.

AGY is definitely in "it's a punt" territory.
Of course you are right to ask the question "is this company going to make it?" and "is the current price telling us it is in trouble?"
It annoys me sometimes that people on HC get slammed for legitimately expressing concerns and testing theories.

In reality, only one thing has gone wrong - AGY has not yet done an OT deal nor Stage 3 investment.
Why? The video posted by Whiskey49 (see my reference to his post here https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-renounceable-rights-issue-to-raise-up-to-6-2m.4667333/page-440?post_id=37788685 ) provides a very good possible explanation as to WHY.

The simple fact is the OT partner isn't ready to sign - most likely still testing AGY's ability to deliver Lithium at required specification consistently.
You can't demonstrate consistency in a couple of months. Did AGY already know this when they told us in December that the deal was pretty much done - is another matter.

The Cash Raise is simply to keep the company alive during this painful period.

With regard to your suspicion that management have the opportunity to "fill their boots" on the rights deal, well they can only do so on market - the rest of us have the opportunity to execute the same strategy.

I see nothing nefarious here, I only see a company going through the painful stages of trying to achieve development.

You will notice I am still not a holder, but I could be if other stocks I am on deliver on time.

If the timing Gods are kind to me, the renounecable rights offer could be a gift from heaven.

IMO
DYOR