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16:12
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Originally posted by jogo
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You need to allow for the long lead times to establish a nuclear plant. They cannot be put in place a year or so like gas plants. The massive construction cost also limits the number of plants that can be constructed over a given period. Hence demand builds up more slowly. The other factor to consider is the time it takes to establish a new uranium mine and put it into production. This is a shorter timeframe but still takes years. Because of the rundown in long term contracts over the past 8 years or so, and low prices causing many uranium miners to go out of business or to close down existing production, then everyone expects a sharp shortfall in the next few years, Even to restart a mothballed plant like Langer Heinrich is expected to take over 12 months, maybe 24. However, the improved price will quickly lead to mothballed facilities being reopened and new mines established and so the price will be moderated even while the increasing number of nuclear power plants grows at a slower rate than mines can be established.
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I believe Korea now has their build process at 5 years - now that China has their clones nearly perfected they're likely to have similar build times before too long.
(20min delay)
