CATL makes its entry via Lithium Plus Pty Ltd?, page-222

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setfire2thehive

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10/03/19

18:32

Post #: 37713633
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Originally posted by upside_down: ↑

Hi @8horse, I've made some adjustments to provide a more conservative base-case at $600 US/tonne.

I've copied your yearly cashflow of $102mil and capex. In this case I assume capex is paid for 100% by AVZ, as I doubt the government will pay for capex and Dathomir is already facilitating funds for the hydro facility and roads.

I've also added in AVZ number of shares diluted, without including the 200 million options Huayou has, adds up to 2.55 billion shares.

Also added in a range of capital raise scenarios at different prices, assuming 70% of capex will need to be raised through equity with the rest coming through debt & off-take prepayments.

This yields NPV/share of 5c -10c.

Ran it again using capex of $300 mil, given there was a +-35% error margin on the capex in the scoping study, so $300 mil would be top of that range.

Again assuming 70% of capex will be raised through equity, gives NPV/share of 4c- 8c.

Not that appealing to me at this stage given the risks involved, lack of clarity around transport, and general lithium market downturn (which I assume will continue in the mid-term, with pick-up end of this year/ 2020).

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can you apply the upper free cash flow horse presented 1m instead of 100k

this will show a fair NPV range not the absolute basement.

also where did 300m capex come from? 35% on 160m = 240m

good to know that even using the worst possible capex, worst possible lithium price, worst possible opex cost, worst possible plant design, NPV still worth double than today.

cheers

Last edited by setfire2thehive: 10/03/19

AVZ Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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CATL makes its entry via Lithium Plus Pty Ltd?, page-222

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