Most gracious of you, rohop.
So fundamentals (critically, the assumptions which drive them), look like supporting NZD15 now and early 20's sometime in FY 2020. lets not worry about finessing the numbers too much.
We need to build a shared understanding of the drivers and levers in our HC forum on what will make ATM succeed in this category and then scour the universe to keep ourselves one step ahead of the ravenous hordes
For example, from conceptual to executional:
(1) The holy grail is today's gestalt of health and well being, what goes into our body etc etc. A2 research indicates milk's relevance and benefit to mankind, across societies and cultures, can be changed forever. In hindsight, this could be recognised as the greatest benefit to nutrition in the 21st century. What is ATM doing to strengthen the robustness of the research because vested interests (US dairy and global non-dairy milks) will be investing massive dollars into discrediting the A2 story. They will need to stockpile serious $ to counter legal attacks ( a tactic by the big boys to suck ATM's war chest dry). What is ATM's strategy to promulgate the message across mankind now?
(2) How important is first mover advantage in this category? I'd say massive, so how long can A2 be kept proprietal to ATM via trade marks, patents etc? What level of up-front investment (e.g. marketing) does ATM need to extract the earliest, longest lead before competitors can get going? should they be more aggressive in selling investors the story of doing more, earlier?
(3) What is ATM's market entry and build strategy in each market so they can create an expandable, sustainable and defensible base? ( strategy cliches but appropriate in the situation). It will be different by market, are they making the right calls? So far, so good. In China, the legacy of the little emperor and allergy to counterfeiting means entry via IF, initially Daigou, now broadening to in-market mother and baby, first second then third tier cities is bang on. Massive ATL investment is still required to "officially" validate the brand on top of virulent word-of-mouth among mothers. On the other hand,In US brand credentials must be built via whole milk in retail , then other categories open, so bang-on again.
Thats just a start. Bore you no longer. But this is the sort of stuff LT ATM believers should be working on in one of the threads of this wonderful forum,
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