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Hartleys Research Report - 12 month target 5.6c, 2021 for 11c, page-10

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wombat777

3,387 Posts.

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03/03/19

11:11

Post #: 37634295
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Originally posted by Oxytorus ↑

I'd suggest that none of the options striking above 10c will be in the money before expiry if they issue ~2B shares in 2019.

I've been looking at the Hartley's note in some finer detail. They're showing a AU$47.5 equity raising in CY19 followed by a $100m raise in CY22. This roughly lines up with a 3c raise in 2019 with a 1:2 attaching BATO. Not sure why they're showing the debt finance in CY20 rather than CY19. Certainly not as advertised.

A raise at 3c would be a ~15% discount to market given a BATO BSM valuation (100% vol) of ~1.5c. With a AU$50m debt package accompanying it that would probably get over the line if we didn't have the RCF experience overshadowing any debt agreement. Short of funds clearing the accounts I'm not sure equity investors are going to trust a conditional/future debt package.

In terms of required working capital, staff & admin costs for 6 quarters to get into production would be ~$12m. I'd really like to see some estimates for total required working capital but would love to think we get away with an initial AU$20m raise.

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I wonder if Hartleys have seen the technical report issued to financiers?

BAT Price at posting: 2.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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