$1 billion NPV. When?, page-14

RDawg, I’ve had a look at the BDI and I make it down 36.7% from 29 March 2018 (roughly the time of the FS example, I’ll check that) through to the 31 January 2019 (the latest Moroccan price). That should take US$13.20 per tonne off Morocco to India freight costs. But then we have to take Darwin to India freight cost into consideration as well because VRM will have a saving there too, albeit a much lesser amount.  

If I understand the FS example correctly, freight from Darwin to India was US$7 per tonne so VRM should see a saving of US$2.57 per tonne there.  

Given the above change in the BDI, Moroccan Phosrock in India should now cost US$102.50 plus freight of US$22.80 for a total of roughly US$125.30 per tonne. This implies FOB Darwin Phosrock bound for India is valued at US$125.30 minus freight of US$4.43 or US$120.86 per tonne. So, in $US terms VRM’s potential revenue from India is up 6.96% by my calcs.  

The 55% of VRM’s tonnage heading to other destinations further from Morocco will probably be up by a lesser amount due to their higher freight costs.  

I think it’s also worth noting that the A$ has fallen and is now 5% lower than the US$0.75 used in the FS. This will ramp up VRM’s revenue but, like the BDI, I know it can change quickly too.    

Anyway, it’s all interesting stuff so I’ll be keeping an eye on it.

Those were all back of envelope calculations so let me know if I've stuffed up. Thanks.