Yes we are about to see a complete base change, and possibly the next great climate shift, as we saw in 1976.
I read this paper a while back, I will find it later for you, linking ENSO to lunar tidal cycles, you can see how far out this is sometimes, and how at other times it's a perfect alignment. Super El Nino events only occur on the 10th year of the tidal cycle, but look where 1982 was, almost 3 years out.
And there is never one sole thing that drives the climate, all of these have their place. 2019 is a bust, as we are more likely to see a La Nina, which will also be early.
And then it gets really interesting, look at the Solar cycle correlation, 2019 also slated for an El Nino, and that's now gone.
You can see La Nina develops on either side of Solar minimum, and the only time the El Nino didn't line up was 1956.
Early mimimim equals La Nina, as you can see written above the last column, this cycle has a much smaller space the na the pervious cycle, if you look at the columns.
We are going to be early, but that is what it's looking like its going to do. All interesting stuff. Which is why I mentioned the lags, they don't always line up, but they do correct over time as well.
