Originally posted by Nofomo
To me, David seems frustrated that all the hard work hasn’t been rewarded in the share price as yet. They have done a lot of work and progressed more in a few years then a lot of other future projects have in 10 years. I still believe this project is a no brainer, based on supply and demand now and in the future. Yes they do have to raise money and yes they probably will be diluted but at these prices its very cheap imo . They will be generating profits within only a few years if all goes to plans. Debt paid off and a cash machine churning... not just for 3-5 years but 10 years minimum . As a longer term investment it looks very good . Just don’t focus on the short term dilution.
He does seem frustrated which is interesting given his personality and the numerous other presentations I've seen of his. Frustration is well justified IMO. I'm concerned that I read a little bit of confusion in there too which is not justified. Management took some big risks and we've worn the downside of those bets. I'm not second guessing, but I was well aware of the possible outcomes - I hope he was too. The lack of faith/interest equity markets have in BAT at the moment isn't at all confusing. BAT's been given plenty of chances, time for management to show it's worth taking another chance.
I am almost speechless to hear DF say with confidence that there'll be senior debt in the funding package. That would be an exceptional outcome and achievement by management. Mind you at best it'll be senior in name but I'd expect I can still get a credit card with cheaper rates. I still believe the status quo funding package at this point would be a large issue of con notes, perhaps in a few different flavours. I don't see there being enough security to warrant having sub-notes or different tranches of pure debt so I assume the other products he refers to will be hybrids as well as a good chance of seeing some warrants/options. They've shown with the 6mth and 5yr options that they're not afraid to be creative so I'm looking forward to seeing what they come up with out of academic interest.
Interesting to note the specific mention of working capital as if it will be dealt with in a separate raising. I think Wombat has read it right that it will be an equity raising at a later date as working capital becomes a more pressing issue. Ideally it'll be done closer to 10c than 2c.
I can't find my rough figures but remember working out there was still a very good chance of my options getting in the money with a 100% equity raising at < 1c. A primarily debt-based package will put me back in the black by Xmas and hopefully enjoying a very good 2020 Xmas.
