Originally posted by mina36
What a terrible miss ! I mean APT which is up 20% today.
I got numerous chances to buy APT just before Xmas at $11. I was so stupid to wait for the gap at $10.80 to fill before I can jump back in.
APT is coppo ‘s top pick stock for 2019. A2m is the second pick.
Hold your shares tightly.
I remember when it dropped to around 5.50 and I was this close to executing the order. But I didn't because I could not put a valuation on it. At this stage there is no net profit that it makes (tomorrow could change that) so its hard to value the stock. It is unclear in the medium term how much money they will actually make so I dont know what the market is expecting for it to justify a 4bn AUD market cap.
Not down-ramping APT , I just hadn't done enough research to have peace of mind with holding that stock. It has had so many swings since the 5.50, I am sure to have sold out early anyway because I would have no justifiable price target.
Coming back to A2m. We make actual money and have real cash reserves. I find A2m far easier to value. Here is ballpark example I have worked out mostly with numbers pulled out of thin air. Share price is at the end of the FY (i.e. day the full year results are announced). The growth rate is the growth rate for the FY over the previous financial year.
I think that in the short to medium term, I have been conservative with the growth estimates. The way Jayne was talking, it sounded like growth could accelerate. I have assumed PEs based on everything else I see. I think the actual PE and SP can vary by +- 50% of what I have forecast. Black swann events are excluded (although I think they are covered in the min SP). Based on my table, I am expecting our SP to be around $17 in August. The catalyst to get us there will be more positive news regarding USA and announcement of actual products Fonterra making for us and when + where they will be getting released.
Its all a bit fuzzy and low on detail, but still much better than the numbers I could pull out on APT.
(20min delay)
