Massive increase in demand!, page-340

Ok, I hope you don't regret asking.

H1 FY19 sales could be down 15% for Australia. GS says China sales are bad so assume about $120m in revenue.
Stock write down unknown for H1, however we know a further write down is required. For prudence assume 10% of inventory is provided at any time. So the provision needs to be $10m.  If we wrote-off $10m in stock, management would still need to raise $8m in provision (assumes a lower requirement due to no China label). So to simplify let's assume a $8k to $13k one off write down in H1 depending if management writes off $10m or $15m in old stock.

H1 FY19 sales of $120m
EBITDA of $26m to $30m ($13m to to $22m after writedown)
PAT of $18m to $21m ($9m to $15m after writedown)

H2 FY19 sales of $150m
EBITDA of $33m to $38m ($23m to $33m assuming SAMR delays and slow moving product)
PAT of $23m to $27m ($16m to $23m after writedown)

FY19 sales of $270m
EBITDA of $59m to $68m ($36m to $55m assuming SAMR delays and provisions for slow moving product)
PAT of $41m to $48m ($25m to $38m after writedown)

P/E ratio of 20 with no SAMR and 30 if SAMR is probable.

Valuation of $0.82b to $0.96b ($0.50b to $0.76m after writedown).  If we get SAMR add 50% to the valuations above.  So you are looking at a range of $0.5b to $1.14b which is a 39% fall to a 39% rise.