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22/02/19
12:02
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Originally posted by schura:
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Not sure I share your short term pessimism. I suppose the half yearly report will clarify a number of issues - ie the effect of the JB stock debacle - did that translate to online sales for us or not? Also the ordering of watches for ANZ business and the UK rollout are not events that must be reported to the market. MWR has in the past kept shareholders informed of stock supply etc which builds confidence in the supply chain, but as the business grows and matures such detail will be merely routine, and not really be as significant for shareholders as other information about sales and deals with distributors. As long as there is no problem with the supply chain, it will be reported on incidentally if at all. There may be a comment about watches on order in the half yearly - maybe not. Also bear in mind the JB's exclusivity is expiring at the end of this month. In view of the stock problems we have had with them, I don't know that we owe them continued loyalty in an ongoing exclusive arrangement, unless there is a commitment to greater reliability. A Telco deal (Spark model) or further retail deals will drive sales (and SP) upward imho. In any case, i think you are on the money to suggest that the next big driver is UK - details of the rollout will move SP, and successful implementation move it even more. MF and the team have consistently delivered on news - Major B&M in Aus - JB Hifi. NZ came a bit out of the blue, but well managed by the company, and could prove to be a big success story in terms of a great model for the business. UK - April launch - the questions around that in my mind are not about whether it will happen or not (there may be delays to get it right - who knows) but what shape that rollout will take. JB model or Spark model - or both with different distributors! Either way, SP may drift down, or drift up or move nowhere in the short term, but I certainly have confidence in the long term prospects of this company.
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Well put. The only thing I would add is that I expect that the sp will very soon be dominated by what happens in the UK and then the rest of Europe. ANZ sales will not have as much of an influence on the sp after that. I've been allowing for UK to sell significantly less per head of population than Aus but I'm hoping they sell more per head. Either way the sp should go well beyond the previous highs as the European rollout unfolds but if the UK take it up in line or better than Aus per head of population then the sp should move well into the double figures.