v good post but imo most of the posters at this stage are fiddling while rome burns
to me there's a real risk of BUD scrip imploding at this point - with so much contingent on getting debt finance
i certainly hope it doesnt happen - but there's a serious whiff emerging from BUD now. i dont like the sp action - because it suggests that financiers to the 8c build arent buying on market
but - because sp action can be misleading - i think the granular issue is you;ve got to consider is risk that deal has to be completed from further equity funding - not only would that be dilutionary - but it would put the nail on the ceo's coffin with most non-attached investors as a further deal/promise failure. investors want to think any announcement of potential to debt fund is done with a debt deal in pocket - ie ceo is sure debt capacity is available. fail to deliver on that and its going to get nasty given the corporate track record
then even if debt deal does materialise - its going to act as a leaden weight on company short term unless earnings really pick up and remove debt servicing concerns
as someone else remarked - consumer goods companies arent valued the way SaaS companies are - so the price paid reflects a different multiple - and there are serious indications that the space has matured and the cornerstone wanted an exit because they see those multiples falling not rising - selling to the 'greater fool' - who in turn is hoping to do same
unfortunately i just can't see anything granular that calms my growing sense of unease.
hoping to be wrong. but as they say - hope isnt an investment strategy
BUD Price at posting:
7.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
