Bupa will be scrambling like mad to be ready to service the ADF. They (ADF) have taken an enormous risk changing providers & have done so ineptly IMO.
KKT have built up considerable IP in their functions/processes & are capable of delivering the services efficiently at a national scale. No other providers (baring APM obviously) are capable of this.
My rationale is that Bupa will welcome these providers (KKT & APM) servicing the 'non-core' (~5%) component of the contract, essentially taking it off their hands. This would allow Bupa to focus all attention on being able to deliver on the core (~95%) of the contract, which in itself will seemingly be a struggle.
These opinions are supported by people I know who operate in the industry (I emphasise opinions) - I personally find insights from those 'on the ground' to be quite valuable. I also believe this type of scenario makes the most commercial sense & therefore, on balance I view a contract with Bupa as being reasonably probable.
I will however also note that I do not extrapolate the long term success of this business on this single contract, and think the market is totally irrational for being so intensely short-term
focused, in this instance.
KKT Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held