You really have to look at this stuff in probabilities and ask yourself basic questions like
Am I a risk taker, or am i risk averse? If risk averse, hold cash. If risk tolerant , hold the stock
What is the payoff for the risk involved? At a roulette table, you expect a high payoff because the potential loss is quite high (your whole bet).
Maybe the risk is asymmetric, or unquantantifable, such as emerging markets without a history of rule of law, which means you might have to add 3~5% to required rates of return. And this leads to questions like, what is the basic rate of return, which leads to questions like;
What is the probability of the worst happening?
What is the worst that can happen?
Could i wait 5 years to sell if the company was suspended from trading?
Is the deposit near the surface?
Is it near infrastructure?
It goes on and on....
But as Rumsfeld once said, there are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Do you think Bawdwin is commercially viable? Yes, it was a working mine previously. Known known
Do you think there is more commercial grade ore nearby? Highly likely. Known unknown
Do you think the government will allow the company to fully extract the economic value of the mine? Unknown unknown.
The deposit is good, the upgrades are likely, pray the government is kind. But overall this mine is like playing with loaded dice. 1~5 i win, 6 i don't lose much.
But, just write down a plan
- how much of my wealth am i prepared to lose
- what price am i happy to sell at
and no matter what, watch it like a hawk.
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