US Indices on Friday's close: SPX: (+0.07%), NDX: (+0.12%), Dow: (-0.25%) and RUT: (+0.05%)
ES futures traded below Thursday’s RTH to make a low of 2680.75 before starting a recovery in the 11:00 ET hour of the cash session. The point of control at 2699.25 is strangely well above the bulk of the action on a bottom-heavy cash session profile. Value is at 2682 to 2696. A massive thrust in the final five minutes of cash trade left SPX at 2707.88 and all but the Dow very slightly higher. That momentum continued in the final session of futures trade.
Comment
The president was in a bit of a quiet mood this week and overt despondence was stifled. Do political moods matter as we approach the March date with potentially increased tariffs? His resilience in the face of adversity is legendary. Some people feel the weight of the world on their shoulders while others just float through life as if it’s a comic book or an FPS game with unlimited spawns. Oh to be free of life's surly bonds. Why...we could even replace old fashioned fear and loathing with mechanical, practical risk management.
Parody
Thursday, wee hours -- Washington DC: "I feel grumpy. Those Democrats are after me for no good reason. That speech was unbelievably presidential and they all know it. And I am free to be me if Nancy would stop interfering…so many possibilities for greatness! This must be what they mean by existential angst -- they say some geniuses have it. Anyway, it's early and the whole world is asleep except for those Australian insomniacs...look at them going higher...very jealous. I see the European market is going to open weak. Look at those Bunds...losers. Let me see…what can I do to show them who’s boss and that America (et moi) will be great again. I should be careful, though. No possibility of greatness if the market is in the mud but...what's the joy in life without a terrifying surprise now and then? Besides, the Chinese are taking advantage of my good nature and they need to know what’s what. OK... I know... *makes phone call*: Hey, Larry, put out the word that we have a long way to go on talks and I won't be meeting with Xi before March…and don’t tell the little woman this time cause you know she’ll buy those S&P put thingies”
Financial media gave many reasons for Thursday's declines and paraded out some bear chartists too. We revisited global growth issues and the trade war etc. This week’s analyst guests included some who called for SPX 2900-ish as late as early December on multiple high profile networks. The stuff started overseas but SPX was kind of overbought; which along with the bearish tenor naturally changes the guest profile and background music. Speaking of analyst's calls, here's a weird idea: watch the more tabloid-like networks with the volume turned down. You might spot the involuntary discomfort more easily.
(20min delay)
