Well i've got my head round everything here again now and yes you were right, i'm bullish now. For the record though i've always liked BID and its software and never really wanted to sell it but one of my most educated brothers thought it was a pile of crap and the falling SP backed his position (wrongly) which all influenced my sell decision.
Another problem i had was i didn't understand the software properly like you do and did and at the end of the day with good operators thats what one is investing in here isn't it? ............ I bet you never sold a single share through the period in fact i reckon you've likely bought bucket loads more at the lows and on the way back up and if so you deserve every cent you make. Thanks for giving me a poke.
As for cold water, im going to throw some at my brother and also over myself for being such dimwits, i should have and could have been all over this at the lows and after selling out, if it wasn't for emotional decision making and fear i guess, but being positive i will learn from this mistake, we live and learn.
I can't really find anything wrong with this, the metrics are looking good and have been improving, the operating costs have been falling while revenue has been increasing and earlier on in cy18 costs were reducing while rebate section was becoming profitable. Theres a 95% retention rate and now theres clear growth momentum. Any increase in quarterly costs in sales teams and angles has so far been offset with greater revenue generation which warrants the extra spend and means the staff are doing their job and getting results rather than just being timewasters full of talk.
Cushman has a nice size 5 yr contract but can pull the pin for whatever reason but if the platform delivers theres no reason to leave and the 95% retention history doesn't give me any reason to think BID can't deliver for Cushman, Singtel was also a good pickup and has a shorter contract period but again theres no reason to leave if savings are achieved and i have no doubt this AI can deliver savings.
Canacord seemed to have no problem placing the shortfall @ 2c, i see one of the instos has sold a few off but most others seem to be hanging on quite tight. Did you notice that JB fella, isn't his pencil sharp
, he picked up a cool 50 mil @ 2c and continued to buy more during CY18 on the market, he must be real bullish and seems to understand the tech/software/AI sector quite well, he was even featuring @ ACX when it was an infant and here he is loading up the truck.
I have been wondering about a CR and sort of still am because of the lowish cash balance. Theoretically theres enough to get through to June 30 for the option monies to come in but i don't think i want to see them stall any sales growth efforts and momentum because they have to wait 6 mths, i would rather them get on with it and aggressively chase the Asia opportunities they talk of as well as being more aggressive in USA and UK etc. There also seems to be a delay between picking up new contracts like Cushman and all the revenue jumping in the till because they reckon full revenue from Cushman wont be there until March '19 if i read it right. Todays 4c burn rate needs that R&D gov rebate strippping out too to get a clearer picture.
Personally i would prefer them to have a bit more coin on hand, i wouldn't want them to miss any opportunities because of ST capital restraints and would like to see them build on their first mover advantage in a timely manner, the rising SP here, the 95% retention, the scalability, the Tam, major contract wins etc will certainly get the attention of other hungry disruptors.
It's also good to see another revenue angle has been added with just the digital processing, little fish are sweet and that Bid Billy is looking alright too.
Anyway not sure when i'm going to buy yet but i will, the LT here looks great and i think once the TAM market works out what BID does and offers they should start lining up like ducks or like i use to say at work to the shoppers..... Pick a number and wait in line.
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Best Wishes
Fish.
