Expectations, page-88

The conference call was indeed very informative and bullish. We are in the 3rd month after the ramp up of a facility, which was mouthballed for several years. Therefore you can't expect to have all wheels turning smoothly. But compared to other mining ramp ups, its done in a profesional and timely matter. Management is very informative and did a lot of explanations on the call, on the topic of where the bottlenecks are. 

As I understand it there are two issues to be solved to get Phase I into full steam: 

1st. The hydraulic mining rate operates at about 6 MTPA, lower then the 8 MTPA targetet. But easily solvable by an additional (3rd) cannon. That should not be an issue for valuation. Although I expect 2-3 months before its done. 

2nd (most important) is the performance of the production plant. The "cleaner circuit" had some performance issues. They lost >50% of the material for the combined rough/clean circuits. The long term target is to loose only about 40% or less.

During the call it was mentioned, they are now performing much better then during the 4th. Quarter and better then in December. So I still expect a gradual increase in their recoveries.

A managable refurbishment of one component was mentioned, as a potential solution and it would seem logical for me to believe management knows what they are doing. 

Its not something which concerns me in regard to my investment. Though I hope they continue to inform us as shareholders on a monthly basis until we are near to the target recoveries. 

If the plant is performing well, they have all options to increase production by another 100% at any time they choose its right. 

I understand the market expects it by the End of the year. But lets see, I don't think it would be a major issue if it's done by the middle of next year. 

More important would be a recovery of the Zinc market/prices by at least 20-30% from the current low levels. That would kick off the interest of the whole Investment community. NCZ will stand as one of the cheapest Zinc players and will benefit from capital inflows to the sector. 

If the NPV is about 1,7 billion AU$ @1.50 US$/lbs Zinc and even if they are trading at a huge discount of -50%, the market cap should be about 3x higher then now, if they are able to be cash flow positive, pay down their debt (which should be a matter of max. 12 months accelarated to 6 months if the Phase II kicks in). 

As soon as Investors realize its probable, stock priceough  will move higher substantially. 

At the moment only one thing concerns me: Is the Board/Management selling any or a substantial part of their Options? There are 114 Mio. Options outstanding. Patrick Walta and Tolga Kumova are holding a bunch of them through their Raging Bull entity. 

Still there is NO STATEMENT whether they are already selling their shares. If they do so, they might just sell down the stock to the 0.25 AU$ exercise price and then allocate NEW Options... 

I'm not accusing them of this yet. But if they would just announce a joint statement, clarifying the situation and assure the market of their interest as long term investors, it would greatly increase their credibility.

Logically it would be much better for them to wait for the Zinc Price to recover somewhat over 1.50 US$, let the stock fly to 2+ AU$ and sell into strength. 

But to imply "logic" behavior on Insider/Managementteams swimming in Performance Warrants/Options is a risky venture.

Before I don't see a commitment I would invest just BUY a first position for trading purposes, wait and see and if Insiders are selling I would sell as well and only buy it back for another trade at or near the exercise level of 0.25 AU$. 

Investing for the long term is not an option for me now. As I don't have full transparency. Though from a Valuation view, it looks like a great opportunity at current levels. 

If you're patient and wait for the beginning of the 3rd quarter, I guess there would be room to rebound into the $1+ range, from whatever low we might see during February-May. 

Cheers