Another ripper from Anthony Milewski: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/resource-bull-market-you-didnt-see-coming-evs-battery-milewski?trk=related_artice_THE%20RESOURCE%20BULL%20MARKET%20YOU%20DIDN%E2%80%99T%20SEE%20COMING%20%E2%80%93%20EVS%20AND%20BATTERY%20STORAGE%20TO%20DRIVE%20COMMODITY%20DEMAND%20FO
Take Aways:
1. Next Super Cycle?
2. Two years ago the penetration rate of EVs was almost zero today we are at approximately 1.8%. Wall Street analysts differ on their penetration rate views in the coming decade, ranging from 8% to 35% in 2025, with the average around 15%. If you extrapolate the forward growth curve, you are closer to 30% of new car sales in 2025 being EVs.
3. What does this all mean for commodities? Simply put, a wave of demand for copper, nickel, lithium, and cobalt is coming that almost no one - miner, investor, or banker alike, anticipated or planned for. Exploration budgets have been slashed for almost a decade now, with a dwindling project pipeline. The large copper mines of the world are growing old and the new potential copper mines are located in challenging jurisdictions.
4. We are now entering one of the most exciting commodities markets we have seen in decades. The way to play the adoption of the EV and grid storage is not betting on Tesla or Umicore. I have no insight in to which automaker is going to win the race in autonomous driving, mobility as a service off of their EV platforms. I have no view on which utilities are going to best utilize grid storage to displace current infrastructure. BUT, what I do know for sure that is so long as you believe the events discussed are going to happen, the basic materials that support the roll out are going to be huge winners.
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