Perhaps it is a good idea to do some mathematics into RSG and it's stock price and valuation potential. Using my approach of Enterprise Value divided by production adjusted for AISC.
RSG currently has enterprise value of $924.5m, equity being around $862m plus $62m net debt. Production let's say 280koz and AISC $1350/oz for 2019 (let's be really pessimistic to make a point). Hence, EV/AISC-Adjusted production is $4457/oz.
SBM currently has an EV of $1.95b, equity being around $2.3b less $350m net cash. Production and AISC expected to be 370koz and $1050/oz, respectively. Hence, EV/AProd is $5533.
SAR currently has an EV of around $2.4b, equity being around $2.415b less $120m net cash. Production and AISC expected to be 340koz and $1100/oz. Hence, EV/AProd is around $7800.
NST currently has an EV of around $5.675b, equity being around $5.95b and $277m cash. Production and AISC expected to be 900koz and $1050/oz. Hence EV/AProd is around $6620.
Now, for RSG to be $2, assuming production is 300koz and AISC is $1300/oz, being not unreasonable estimates, the EV/AProd is around $6769. This will propel it to being overvalued. But back when it was last at $2 in 2016, the EV was $1.087b, assuming equity around $1.287b and $200m net cash. Production was around 300koz and AISC was around $1200. EV/AProd would be $4344.
Thus, if RSG does reach $2 under current conditions, it may suggest overvaluation. However, the enthusiasm of the market may push gold miners to overvaluation levels this year should the Fed decide to cut rates, or the global economy tanks. To think it is completely impossible is to stand against some sensible data presented here.
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Mkt cap ! $1.543B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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---|---|---|
2 | 14881 | 39.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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40.0¢ | 668567 | 8 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 20000 | 1.245 |
14 | 458433 | 1.240 |
12 | 312067 | 1.235 |
6 | 139692 | 1.230 |
6 | 131961 | 1.225 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.250 | 371388 | 17 |
1.255 | 220916 | 10 |
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