Ann: Trading and Sales Update, page-121

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foo ling yu

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11/01/19

13:30

Post #: 37092415
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Originally posted by chuk ↑

""Sales for the month of March 2018 reached 82% of the pre-
Christmas sales levels achieved in the month of December 2017."
That adds weight to my expectation that post Christmas sales this year will not see much of a drop from pre Christmas, especially if there is pent up demand from JB running out of stock which we didn’t have last Christmas. The latest trading update showed strong quarter on quarter growth throughout from the March qtr onward. If this March qtr is only 80% below the Dec qtr and then we see strong qtr on qtr growth again, then a full 12 months of sales going forward should be at least 6 times the sales of the 2 months to end of December. Based on the numbers in the update, I’d say at least 8 or 9,000 watches were sold to customers in the 2 months to Dec. If that is a reasonable assumption, then sales for the 12 months starting Nov last year to the end of Oct next year should be around 48,000 to 54,000 units"

Does anyone see any issues with this reasoning?
Hell, I'd be very happy with 30,000-35,000 from Australia/NZ over the next 12 month plus the initial extra orders from Europe.
I'd be happy to hear others thoughts, positive or negative (preferably as long as they're logical and not just nonsense ramping either way).

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I think the 82% historical figure would offer a far more convincing expectation of a repeat if the volumes were anywhere near similar. The numbers last year were in hundreds of units, now we are in 10's of thousands.

That said, we don't need anywhere near 82% now to boost revenue significantly.

MWR Price at posting: $3.45 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Trading and Sales Update, page-121

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