It look likes you shifted some weight to the large caps overnight and did a bit of front running of the European and US sessions. If you're long anything related to this circus, I hope you'll wake up to some decent stability.
The ESH19 structure from overnight was centered around 2570, which as you know is an area of previous acceptance, a high volume 30-day node and a near term target. During the first hour of trading -the initial balance - the cash session part of the contract fell to just above the onl at 2560.50 and bounced back above yesterdays rth high. As of mid-session, SPX had pared its losses and was back above the 50% retracement of the 3 to 24 Dec. downtrend. This is the third consecutive session where we have tested the overnight low and gone higher intraday; the buy the dip mentality is showing up again today as the overall index moves toward more vulnerable areas of SPX 2603 through 2640. In today's series of profile updates, you can see how overnight action progressed into the cash session.
NYSE A-D opened quite negative but breadth indicators have moved to just under the neutral zone. The indices have been higher then lower on the Fed comments below but are still above the flat line.
12:40 ET -- Bullard (2019 voter): FOMC already sufficiently preemptive vis inflation. Sees inflation below target in 2019. Opportunity to raise rates has now closed. Weaker data now influencing views. He is moderately concerned that global slowdown may worsen. He says aggressiveness on the Fed's part inverts the yield curve. Bullard says the current stance on monetary policy is too hawkish. Bullard says the trade war is very real and very tangible. He says the trade war may be connected to slower global growth. He says the government shutdown could affect the next NFP employment report.
12:50 ET --Powell: Fed has the ability to remain patient because of the subdued inflation data. He says the Fed has no specific plans to raise rates in a specific time frame. Medium rate forecast reflects strong expectations for 2019. He has received no invitation to meet with the president. He says are concerned with the trade war and are too pessimistic vis economic data. He repeats that there is no preset path for rates. He says the Fed can be flexible depending in economic data. US partial government shutdown will show up in Fed data quickly. He does not see instabilities that would require the Fed to act. His main worry is global growth's impact on the US. He also says that he is concerned about China's impact on US growth and that he sees another year of solid Chinese growth. He is worried about US debt in the long run. Powell does not know the appropriate level of the balance sheet but that it will end up substantially lower but the end point of runoff is still not certain. Breadth went negative and ES backed down on that last balance sheet comment.
The USD index has bounced again from the 200 EMA today and is not pulling back. The 16B 30-year bond reopening just sold at the lowest yield since July. High yield: 3.035% (vs 3.120% 12 auction average), Bid-to-cover: 2.19 (vs 2.36), Indirect bid: 57.3% (vs 62.7%) and Direct bid: 15.9% (vs 10.0%).
Indices are now flat on the day and breadth is still neutral.
(20min delay)
