The Brains Trust, page-14975

@Andrew1234

Hey mate I recall you being across APT somewhat?

I'm thinking of a short around $14.80, recent price resistance. My underlying view is that it will eventually go to $0.

Logic being, huge signups due to novelty / access to funds to consume. Retailers see a boom, everyone thinks its great.

Next phase / risks, if economy slows down, consumer spending sentiment shifts, bad debts increase (US different attitudes potentially to Aus), funding costs increase, then the profit they do make may actually turn to losses quite quickly. Then there's also costs to retailers, if it is a sugar hit, going forward they may look to alternative schemes or arrangements to cut APT fees.

Barriers to entry for other merchants to offer a similar service is low. I don't think first mover is really a long term benefit, since I don't think its a very differentiated product. There's lots of merchants around (Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Square, Apple pay etc etc), who could look to move into this space somewhat or at least compete.

Are you still a bull for APT? Disregarding price action, but in terms of a viable business?

Am I missing something massively obvious to counter my thinking?

Cheers!