Ok let's look at NST's mines remembering from my previous post that Syama UG based on feasibilty has a mine life out to 2032, Syama has probable reserves of 35.2Mt at 2.7 g/t for 3Mozs, LOM AISC US$746/oz. This doesn't include oxide or sulphide satellite pits or potential UG depoists at Nafolo or Tabakoroni or stockpiles or the additional 2.7Mozs of resources in the Syama UG depoist that are not in reserve categories or the potential to extend the Syama UG at depth. The deposit remains open at depth.
NST's new Pogo acquistion currently contains only 1.99Mt at 11.9 g/t for 760kozs of gold by Canadian reporting standards in proven and probable reserves. That's well less than a third of the reserves that Syama has UG alone. NST has recently put out JORC resource estimates for Pogo of 8.8Mt at 14.7 g/t for 4.15Moz which I assume includes the above mine reserves but does not include 765kozs of non-JORC resources contained in satellite deposits. I can't find the recalculated JORC reserves which is a bit suspicious. Why would you recalculate the resources based on JORC but not the reserves (see announcement dated 16 Oct 2018). Based on this Syama UG alone contains 3.95 times the reserves of Pogo and 1.37 times the resources of Pogo. I can not find a mine plan for Pogo with current forecast mine life or AISC, maybe some else can. Based on reserves of 760kozs and production of 300kozs/annum the visibility is 2.5 years with no stated AISC that I can see. Maybe some else knows the numbers. The mine on paper has a very attractive resource but one needs to wonder why the Japanese took only $A347 million in cash for a resource with such apparent great potential and how many other bidders there were when they opened their data room and why NST came out on top out of the field of all international gold mining companies? Please let me know if you know of any NST announced metrics on this mine that clarify the AISC or LOM metrics for Pogo.
I'll cover NST''s other mines of relevant scale in the next post.
So far Syama UG remains king and we have looked at both SBM and SAR's mines and we are working through NST's mines.
Once SBM puts out the results of their Gwalia Mass Extraction feasibilty we can see how feasible their 2031 mine plan might be. Given their current low levels of reserves at Gwalia they will be relying heavily on non-reserve catagory resources in any feasiblity they produce so unless they spend tens and tens of millions drilling deep holes before they publish that feasibilty in the March quarter, any feasibilty produced won't be anywhere as robust as that produced for Syama UG (which is based on probable reserves). Drilling density and cut-off grades (lets no go there in these comparisons or we will blow up Hot Copper's servers) is a big determinant on how trust worthy any feasibilty study is.
I wonder why all the knockers aren't knocking NST, SAR and SBM with their opaque costs and life of mine disclosures?
Probably because they are all to busy here taking a front row seat bagging out one of the best gold deposits on ASX. Esh
(20min delay)
