While I appreciate the fact that you are attempting to think about the prospects for Canyon, I'll stick to my own research, my own brains trust and my own conclusions. Only a fraction of which gets put out here.
I note with interest that you are very quick to jump on any perceived differences in pricing to the downside but silent when it comes to the upside. On top of which you are very pedantic about arguing down a projection when there is room to argue it up, perhaps by orders of magnitude. An interesting bias on your part. My bias is not disingenuous, it is stated, BUY and I am already in, I'm not looking for an entry which might create its own bias?
I believe the resource will double, quadruple or more over the next 3-6 months. A few points to consider in that argument;
1.Early drill holes have produced significantly thicker bauxite profiles than previous results.
3. the Company now estimates that the drilling completed on the Project by the previous owners tested less than 30% of the available bauxite plateaux.
Those 3 points straight from last ASX release. The ASX may not allow the company to talk about probable upside but we can. The potential is enormous. Would be interesting to see what you think it could rise to as an upside figure.
That also leaves a lot of room for increasing grade from mining activities as low grade can be left behind. I think there is a reasonable prospect for greater than a billion tonnes of high grade...time, and not much time, will tell. That will prove up what I believe are the already extremely robust economics even further. I don't put out all my info or rationale for reaching the conclusions and numbers that I do, but I assure you they are genuinely believed by me and I walk my talk.
It's not compulsory to buy. If you can't see the value at 20c perhaps you should not?
And as suggested a week ago: PFS is due end of Q1 and that will firm up numbers around costs, processes and resource size. Only 11 weeks away now, give or take. For those considering a buy but not convinced waiting a short time will firm up the data even if at the risk of a higher entry price. However, IMO, a resource of this size will be mined. I know of no other comparable bauxite resource that is not yet spoken for. Good luck with your decisions and research.
PS I appreciate that rigour in numbers can be a very good thing but at this stage of the process we are operating on best guesstimates as some of the data is yet to be revealed. Hence, I try to make sure there is wriggle room that protects my projections even though you obviously think the opposite. For example, When I leave Silica at 2% in the price calculator it REDUCES the overall price obtained for bauxite. If I was to use the current resource statement value for reactive silica the $s per tonne would rise. Also, u seem to think that it is some how inappropriate to imagine that the resource will attract the interest of other than Chinese buyers and hence potentially enormously lower freight costs from Kribi, I do not. In fact given current world politics, tariffs etc I'd even suggest an auction (for off-take or the company) between a variety of interested parties is likely. I use the Chinese based price not because it is the only possible destination for Canyon's bauxite but because it is a readily verifiable source of info and markets are competitive, ie, this is a good indicator for landed price world wide.
I don't think it an accident that both bauxite prices and Canyon's share price have held up very well during the recent market ructions.
Please keep in mind that Kribi is not only a deepwater port but that extremely deep water is available only a kilometer off shore (compared with 30-50kms for Guinea). Any size vessel could be accommodated and it would not surprise me to see a 'stage 2' development see additional rail and shipping capacity added at some time post initial production targets being met, regardless of who owns the resource at the time.. This is a world class resource and it will get mined in my opinion. It's now in the hands of a company with a clear and present desire to develop it at pace. It will surprise to the upside, not the downside.
PPS You will have to forgive my poor spelling, 30 years of spell checkers have destroyed my spelling abilities and my brain is used in different directions these days.
Go on, you know you want to buy and IMO the price will soon be rising
(20min delay)
