Ann: Options Underwriting, page-45

In terms of the article I posted in summary this is the gist of the article and why I believe the is scope in the market for a number of new 'greenfields projects' over the next 5 years, including AVL in italics below:

"Adding to the situation is the prediction new vanadium supply will not come online until at least 2022.

And, until then, it’s estimated about two new operations the size of London AIM-listed Bushveld Minerals’ Vametco asset are required to come online each year for the next seven years just to meet projected market consumption."

Obviously, the new rebar standards lead to a doubling in the vanadium input in steel and hence a shortfall.  Whether the shortfall is as large as stated above is another issue, but the shortfall is expected to be large in any event (and will be even greater once  batteries take off as well), which still means room for new greenfields entrants. 

I just wish AVL and TMT sort out their differences and work together, sharing 'common user' infrastructure where possible like the gas pipeline to reduce capex, and therefore getting earlier entry into the market.  I suspect TMT was hammered as well because the market has now removed the benefits of synergy in capex between the two etc.  

But to put it more mildly as I have posted in the past - refer Post #: 36907115 - getting in early also means you have a better IRR possibility. 

Nonetheless, and to reiterate here a 2022 production start date doesn't bode well for the SP short term (excluding the likely pump and dump by the option buyer  in the event the shares are not been purchased for someone else) as I suspect a number of investors might decide to sit on the fence and see where things are heading before jumping back in.  Obviously, getting a binding Offtake Agreement signed with some form of equity funding sometime in 2019  (a la cart the way PLS did it) will change that view and SP would take of in that situation btw.

All IMO and one VB drunk