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Ann: 2018 AGM Presentation to Shareholders, page-9

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  1. 7,936 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1554
    An 8% growth rate, on a 75% earnings retention rate, indicates less than exciting returns on deployed capital (though not disastrous either).

    @MarsC

    Problem is, what that overlooks is that those retained earnings haven't exclusively been applied to growth.

    Specifically, there has been a $19m reduction in the company's net debt position (from $13m in net debt @ June 2005 balance date, to $6m cash net cash today) over your chosen 13-year review period (and the bulk of that period involved low interest rates so the earnings attribution from that balance sheet de-risking has not been overly material).

    And $19m is a meaningful quantum in the context of $11m of cumulative dividend payments and $56m of cumulative NPAT and over those 13 years.

    I'd argue that the apples-with-apples earnings retention rate over that period is probably less than 50% ... [1-{(19+11)/56}]

    Don't misunderstand me: financial pedigree-wise, this is no 9 out of 10 or 10 out of 10 business.

    But then again, it is also not a 3 out of 10 or 4 out of 10 business... which is the way the market has been valuing it in recent years.
 
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