Short Term Trading Week Starting: 10 Dec, page-36

@ @radx

Your detailed explanation with charts and stats is excellent but still shows "Confirmation Bias".

I have a couple of reasons why I still say that.

1) In your list of negatives there were four important ones, and you have discussed the first 2. What about the last 2 which might be as, or even more important.

a) Consumer Spending:  a bit difficult to see the trend.

b) Corporate Profits: not really covered in your recent post. Check back into the US reporting season several weeks back for the S&P 500 companies. They looked very good overall  to me with a few misses on a few large Nasdaq listed companies.

2)  Would you have exactly the same posting if you were long US equities?  You have not indicated the answer.

And I have another point to raise. Referring to the GDP Growth of the US showing quarterly bars, the penultimate one was huge compared to the last 3 years. The final one has the value of 3.5 which is lower than the one before, but the average value of all 12 quarters is only 2.3.

3.5 is still much greater than the recent average; by 52% better.

Stats and charts can have many interpretations. I am not trying to be very bullish, just that the situation is not quite as bad as current markets are indicating. I believe we will, and the US will rally to recover some of the recent losses.