TA charting analysis, page-176

Very much an amateur dabbler in the dark arts so interested in all thoughts here.



A few things seem evident which I'll acknowledge:

1. I've definitely contributed non-scientific bias to charts in the past.  Positive sloped floors and rising channels seem to be reserved for bull markets.  Take away the bull and the model doesn't hold.
2. The trend is down.  It's long established and at first look seems like it could take something special to turn around.
3. Volume has been very low since the turn.  We can see volume spikes on momentum change and a very solid high volume patch on our run up.  Since then it has significantly tapered.
4. There has been support right about here since our first re-rate in Feb.

Interpretation of this is another matter.  I'm no expert but offer my thoughts to invoke discussion:

• I expect us to remain in the wedge until something triggers a move.  We are into our 5th month inside and (the way I've mapped it) there's a good month left.  A few false start bounces for the traders perhaps if history is any guide?
• The diminishing volume tells me people aren't that interested in selling at lower prices.  Is it stupid to say that the fall is more from lack of buyers than many sellers?  Makes sense to me anyway and would seem to indicate that only a small shift in buying pressure is needed to jump.
• The support is real.  People know this stock exists and have been waiting to buy sub 40 for a long time now.  Spikes from here have been significant.  March and twice in April we had 15% bounces.  The June 21 PFS candle was chaos - 44% range on our 3rd highest volume day ever, starting a very strong month of upward volume.

So, sit tight and wait for a volume trigger?

Nothing earth shattering but given we know there are a few coming it's a decent place to be.