Hi Prime1,
The short term risks I refer to are:
1) Ongoing manipulation by hedge funds to lower the share price ... yesterday’s price action seems like a good example.
2) Ongoing delays and issues during production ramp up, resulting in delayed positive cash flow and a requirement for further capital raising.
I’ve got no issues with the first point ... and would probably add to my holdings in that case. I’m more wary on the second point. I have a lot of experience in commissioning of industrial plants and am mindful of the challenges. Equipment issues (failures, high wear rates, instrument accuracy issues etc), difficulties addresing process bottle necks, and unrealistic management expectations are all common in the ramp up phase. With that said, the announcements are starting to provide me with more confidence they will deliver. The 5 weeks of lost production would have provided the commissioning team with a valuable opportunity to address known issues and optimise parts of the process without interference. The last announcement suggests they are starting to reap the benefits of that, and I’m hopeful that continued ramp up to economic rates will be achieved within a reasonable time frame. It’s an educated bet with reasonable odds ... “punt” was probably the wrong word for me to use. I don’t bet on horses.
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