Some are a little disillusioned with this funding package, and with good reason.
Although the raise is at 25 cents, I can see this drifting down to the low 20's during 2019 at some stage.
I can also see a major making use of that drift, and opportunistic timing during 2019, to put in a low ball offer, and test the patience and fortitude of the board and shareholders, especially if there is delays with construction, or in-country trouble. Why wouldn't you?
For example, just say the price drifts to 21 cents in June/July 2019, and an offer comes in at 31.5 cents, so they can say it's at a 50% premium to the current price (given a construction delay and in-country trouble). Who's going to refuse it?
So now it's a waiting game.
The board were obviously duped by brokers who said their institutional buyers were not prepared to stump up over $40 million for anything more than 25 cents. This shows up a weakness in the board, and perhaps a lack of intestinal fortitude, or creative lateral thinking.
Personally, I would have taken more from Taurus, or from two (2) debt funding bodies, given none to the institutional buyers, and rewarded long term (current) shareholders with a small raising at a premium price, with a juicy option/warrant deal thrown in, like they regularly do in Canada. I cannot understand why the board did not do this !
The institutional buyers can then go to hell, the project doesn't need them, so why are they being gifted ?
On a more cynical note, it would be interesting to know if any of the current board has affiliations with brokerages and some of their institutional buyers. I don't believe so, this is unfortunately just the way many of these Australian capital raisings go, with institutional leaches pulling the punches. I expect that some of the institutional buyers may come from Macquarie.
I agree that this has just become bottom draw stuff, with a long wait for either a low-ball takeover offer, or production ramp up in 2020 sometime, or thereafter.
Gw
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Ann: Capital Raising Presentation December 2018, page-22
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