Ann: Mount Peake Access Authorities Granted, page-18

Some points to consider:

While there has been some progress in relation to the MT Peake mine,there still remains the completion of the MMP,the approval of that plan and afterwards the Authority to mine.Now considering the refinery,we have not yet even submitted the EIS,(which leads me to conclude that we haven't irrevocably decided a location or even jurisdiction for the refinery).This will be followed by an approval process(months),that could confirm the Darwin site or not.We also may be circa 5 months away from a binding offtake(assuming it doesn't fall over like the last one) for TI and the form that it appears to be taking may mean no finance component to that agreement.This raises a question mark over whether the pigment plant will remain BOOT funded,and by whom,or find it's way to capex. With regard to funding,if TNG are looking to KfW as the major supplier of funding for the refinery,with the loan to have ECA backing then that is lengthy process and no clarity has been provided as to which step we are at.(Ihave my suspicions though).Should all of the above actually come together,then we will have the equity component to consider and the potential dilution that will entail.While I may be proven wrong,I posted recently that if we count ALL costs to get to production from here,(including BOOT)we could give the headline capex numbers of KRC a decent run.Then add a perception that we don't have management with the skillset required to achieve all that and pull all the parts together and you begin to see why the market is applying a heavy discount at this point.

As you can see there are many uncertainties(especially as regards timeframes to achievement) and as we progress along the line of achievements,each next milestone will be of greater difficulty than the last.I haven't bothered to mention the dilution from recent CR's,the missed timelines or the destroyed credibility of management and the consequential plunge in sentiment.

That said,the potential size of the prize  is large enough to keep us here.I also think the right appointment to the position of chairman will go a long way to reversing sentiment and the SP and then perhaps milestones will produce the reactions in SP we desire.