QUB It is going Under the Radar, page-23

Hi Pete,

Thanks for your contribution and questioning as I'm always wanting to be challenged.
I think you're right to be questioning this. and I am questioning it too now.

EPS is in decline - as it has issued so many shares. That's exactly what it says on my platform dropping from

EPS pre abnormals:
06/15 at 0.14 to 0.033c on 06/18 which had/has me worried, but then another source from same platform (Nabtrade)
going from 8c in 2013 to 5c in 2017, yet YTD it's 12c... confused there - if anyone can help me.


But it's dividend per share has increased - from 4c in 2011 to 6c to 2018 - plus recent special 2c dividend - which may continue (although don't fully understand why it's nor incorporated into this normal earnings) - I thought this was from free cash flow - not borrowing to pay dividends.

Debt has gone up x3 whilst Assets up x 2 and a bit from 2014 to 2018 - that's not good either - but appears to be covered ok with earnings and it's from acquiring assets such as Patrick - and building Moorebank - if I am not mistaken - so it's a long term play.
PE according to my share platform is 21 (although in 2017 was 48) - does seem high but....

By way of comparison - one of the largest in USA - UP is 20.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UNP/union-pacific/pe-ratio

Sector ratio is 22
https://csimarket.com/stocks/BNSF-Valuation-Comparisons.html

Revenue is up from $190m in 2011 to $1580M present - but clearly has acquired lots.

I should say I believe the story that rail is really important and the lifeblood of the country - rather than road. But that is a thesis not raw numbers.
Very high barriers to entry, I can't see a competitor coming in and duplicating this infrastructure.

I've been a holder for several years now and bought it on the basis of what Moorebank will bring.
I'll be watching it's debt closely too and hope to see it pay down, although I know it's a capital intensive business.