Originally posted by groundswell
You’re clearly highly skeptical that there’s any likelihood of them mining profitably any time soon.
What are your top three reasons behind this skepticism.
OK, fair enough...as I've said for a long time I have no issues with the project itself. The grades are good and the mine has the benefit of sunk capital. When they do eventually start they should be able to mine profitability. I'm skeptical of what they say because I feel they have mislead the market on multiple occasions and line their own pockets with unbridled enthusiasm.
(1) They have told the market they can move to 90% when it seems clear to me they can only go to 80% unless a deal has been done which should have been announced. I heard around the traps that the people who think they are entitled to the 10% are planning on suing the company. The early investor presentations clearly said that this 80% could be purchased for 10% of the listed value of CZL at the time. Not done, no change announced, so what's the case and if the case is different why and when did it change?
(2) They have announced to the market that the 10% remaining with the Mexican vendors is contributing. This is totally incorrect. It's non diluting until completion of a BFS. They can purchase the further 10% based on a valuation of the asset. Again this was announced to the market in all their early presentations. Not done, no change announced, so what's the case and if the case is different why and when did it change?
(3) The announcements made lately regarding production are total horse sheet. It was an obvious attempt to ramp the price in order not to issue as many shares to the Mexican vendors. I guess this is good if you're a holder. But what about all the people that bought in to the SPP on the basis that they were producing? There were 53 days between the announcement that "Mining has commenced immediately at the rate of 100 tons per day" and the closing of the SPP. They knew full well they were nowhere near the production targets but didn't say anything until option exercised and SPP closed.
To be fair there is a chance that they could mine this profitably one day but will the shareholders see any money from it? Unlikely. Is it imminent? Doubtful; probably best case is 2nd quarter 2019 (which is not that far away). Let's see what the November production report says. If there was no more ore delivered to Grupo Mexico I think it's safe to say these guys are more interested in mining the market as opposed to the asset. I also don't like the recent changes to the constitution. The Chairman is very rich and very aggressive and will have no issue doing a number on ordinary shareholders if it's for his benefit. These recent changes to the constitution tell me an evil plan is afoot.
