Thanks Blister
Yeah. The bond market is its own universe within which there are many other universes, only some of which are US centric.
As I see it both the bullish and bearish views are gaining strength ....... in other words the bond market will sit increasingly in the spot light. I won't base my judgement on claims that the market is efficient/all knowing. I will continue to absorb some of the metrics (as best I can).
Back in 2006 I gave a bit of a grilling to a CBA man trying to flog CDO's and on that basis I lack trust. All of the bond universes are I believe linked and for the moment I'm mainly concerned about stuff like EU bank exposure to dodgy emerging market debt (including sovereign and corporate bonds). It's not just Turkey or Argentina. While each basket case may not in itself be enough to tip global markets, combined they may be.
As you imply a lot depends on interest rates and guesstimates of future interest rates. What Trump seeks may not not what the Fed does. ECB and BoC are also only parts (albeit important parts) of the matrix.
At first glance though the growth in corporate and sovereign debt over the last 10 years comes over to me as frightening. Also, notes issued at near zero or negative interest rates are by the maths over valued at the point of issue thus the bubble.
cheers
PS: The MSM article below contains both bearish and conciliatory conclusions. The consolation is that the author does not seem to think the bubble will pop for another 12 months. It contains some interesting numbers but again it is US centric).
