Novice, I subscribe to SimplyWallStreet and I can tell you some of their opinions are way off...they are entitled to them of course, but I'm not sure they know the beast which is AOG. For starters, AOG are really a Healthcare company and not "real estate" as they imply.
Secondly, to make such a statement as "extremely negative double-digit change in profit" is to mis-understand the value of a maturing DMF. (I couldn't find this statement by the way, but don't doubt you it is there somewhere) and an ignorance of the macro growth for this sector.
AOG are bit like funeral companies, they make their cash when people die...and the average age of their occupants is now over 83! Tick-tock, tick-tock! Check the B/S, there is $1.9bn in NPV of annuity streams coming AOG's way.
Yes, I would agree with them that the FY19 figures won't be as good, principally because the adjustment to 'fair value on the residential holding' should be less than FY18 given the total RE market is off. This also applies to the selling off of their remaining residential property.
That said, it is difficult to explain the share price falling which opens up even more discount to NTA. The bots are in there every day buying and selling for someone.
For mine, the buy back hasn't happened because they are preserving cash and this might well be because their sales of developed stock are slow. They do have a huge overhang here given the completions towards the end of the FY18 year. I will be very interested in getting an update on November 14. I really do hope the institutional analysts put it to Seng and Grady on their apparaent 'spin' on buyback and appointment on institutional advisors. They look like absolute 'gooses' presently. Indeed, unless some buy back occurs, ASX should investigate as this is the second such 'buy-back' and this is looking like the farce which was the previous one.
But, I remember way back when FKP "popped" and we all made good coin...it just came out of the blue and I suspect (hope) this will repeat.
From a macro viewpoint, AOG have a huge opportunity. Currently there are 187,000 Australians living in retirement villages and this figure has HUGE compound growth in the near term.
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