Hi Plugger04 Don't listen to posters who over hype stocks...Does more damage than good so sticking to the fundamentals would be a positive starting point...
Please feel free to comment on the long term fundamentals...
The DFS indicates an EBITDA of 46 million based on sales of all 40,000 ton's per annum. A conservative basket price was chosen being stress tested at 10 year low's. It's important to note the basket price chosen were conservative to peers. It is the quality of our resources not the volume. To date management have indicated highest margin curve per ton mined to peers. Our current ROM at $292 plus $60 dollars for an out sourced contract from mine gate delivered to Port Mtwara.(container port)
As your one not for hype management have indicated 3 current off take partners all wanting 40,000 Tons per annum with South Korea,USA and Japan testing our graphite rated best in class. Build it and they will come...
How to achieve the best value from the resource you may ask. Do we over supply current off take partners limiting supply and increasing basket value. These can grow organically where very important not to over supply.Strategic start up 40,000 Tons Value organic growth 3 x 40
The plant can handle 3000 ton's per day not the current 1000 modeled in the DFS. Sure does look like management are playing this strategically with 3 x 40 all wanting 40,000 ton's on start up. Extra cells can be added to increase production...Think flotation..
The DFS has indicated the first three years at >23% TGC feed grade with a high cut off grade at 8% for life on mine.Select mining possible from high grade graphite very distinguishable from low grade to high grade. This is a huge advantage on start up as we do not have to fund a large capex high ROM operation. The ultra high grade extension will give an even bigger advantage on start up. More amenable likely even improved distribution with 40% of current value coming from super jumbo. Material limited in nature with highest margin per ton mined.
DFS 40,000 Tons EBITDA at 46 million conservative basket price with 60% recent increase of 50 mesh size.
Possible 40,000 tons x 3 off take partners will lower ROM using same plant with extra flotation cells. Organic growth...growing into known markets with certainty
EBITDA estimate 46 million x 3 using stress tested basket price...Shares on issue 300-340..?
Earnings per share in production..?
The plant can handle 3000 ton's per day not the current 1000 modeled in the DFS. Sure does look like management are playing this strategically with 3 x 40 all wanting 40,000 ton's on start up. Extra cells can be added to increase production...Think flotation..
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