For an update on LGC market from the Clean Energy Regulator see this link.
They have noted a larger amount of renewable than previous forecast and a surplus of certificates circa 5 million early next year.
They are also allowing >10% shortfall and oversupply to be carried forward as the 2020 targets will be exceeded anyway.
If the target was raised by a Labor government, this could tighten the market again.
Ann: Quarterly Production and Revenue - Q1 FY19, page-4
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