Cheers for the reply Esh.Without doubt, holding gold developers is a pretty contrarian viewpoint, especially when the majority of the Western world view it as basically just jewelry.
I also agree that CMM easily has the potential for a 1m ounce in reserves, which is quite rare on the ASX. As you rightly point out though, its low grade, so its all relative with other companies that have higher grade. I think the project fits perfectly in RRL portfolio which was why I was so surprised they sold their holders a while back. Clearly, they took a look across the ASX and realised, there are few projects worthy of being an addition to a mid tier. In fact, I cannot think of another currently, (EAR does count due to its short mine life). However, I cannot see the blocking stake entity changing their minds, so... for now at least CMM is basically a no T/O company.
That being said, right now, even with the POG in AUD high, sentiment in the sector is poor for everyone, except NST and its lesser rivals (I know we both agree that NST is out of joint with reality, but... well done to those holding right now, they have made a killing). As you say, when sentiment returns, CMM will have its chance to raise a good amount of money, but we will see of course whether management is crafty enough to do so.
As for perhaps making a 100% return, sure, but then, there is still a good amount of risk in reaching that point. To date, the developers have had moments of brilliance, followed by absolute hammerings to their share price. I personally have been burned by these companies (GCY included).
I have said that to date, CMM management seem to have the smarts to not over-promise, or miss critical deadlines (finance aside, slippage is understandable).
As for DRM, we will see. 2 years of big losses, sure... but that was past management, poor performance, Andy Well shutting down etc. Not making excuses, just what has occurred plain and simple.
RMS - fair enough, lets wait and see what the Dec quarter brings. But I do disagree with you to some extent about past performance not being indicative of future performance, surely its a better guide than no history at all? I actually like that you are so honest with your views and since I don't hold RMS anyway You are def making better returns on your investing in gold stocks going from HC, so I am no way discounting your views.
I really like the logic of your second last paragraph. To date, that has not proven to be true (to my detriment!), but it is my basic strategy for investing in the sector. Sadly, the best thing to have done would be to just plonk all my money in NST. Then... probably around now, rotate into what is basically a gutted sector with very little life in it, yet... the POG in AUD is hovering near all times highs. Not sure if I have said it, but CMM is cheap, sure, I have harped on about Capex, but... its a good project. And in 2 years, it might be making money, but... that is a long journey and hence, the main thrust of my posting, is just to provide a view that, while its cheap, and it will have its up and downs to be traded, its a long slog, and in all honesty, unless it gets another T/O, won't make investors like me (loyal, average at TA) a good return.
Investing is such a joy and a challenge!
Happy to be proven wrong and I hope that Tramore comes up trumps etc.
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Last
$6.49 |
Change
0.050(0.78%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.397B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.43 | $6.55 | $6.37 | $6.461M | 999.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 2845 | $6.48 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.50 | 4682 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 135 | 5.570 |
5 | 14915 | 5.550 |
2 | 7023 | 5.540 |
4 | 10250 | 5.530 |
1 | 3000 | 5.520 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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5.600 | 26965 | 9 |
5.610 | 9400 | 4 |
5.620 | 15379 | 3 |
5.630 | 13592 | 3 |
5.640 | 6546 | 1 |
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CMM (ASX) Chart |