Share Price After Award Decision

I think we need a new thread specifically for calculations of the share price after the outcome is known. For example, if the award is $50 million then what would be a reasonable share price? What if it were $100 million? (And vice versa if the award is nil or very low.) While I understand that nobody knows exactly what the share price would climb to, I think it can be a useful exercise to try and put a reasonable estimate on potential share price reaction depending on size of the award, so that people can have a better idea of risk vs reward if choosing to buy some shares in anticipation of the announcement.