i've been here with well over 500 small caps over the last 20 years or so. great product, great potential and absolutely no interest in the stock. That is the small end of town where logic, sentiment and sp are seldom aligned with fundamentals. This is right where we are now with NTI.
The fundamentals are:
1.asx listing less than 2 years ago. NTI is at the start of its life cycle (not the edge of cliff death spiral as others have stated)
2.Virtually all share holders are in the red so sentiment is understandably low.
3.Clinical trial results exceptional (uneducated, unscientific people may disagree)
4.Clinical trial methodology questioned by some. Understandable, but we are not Pfizer preparing to launch a $multi million phase 3 trial. We are a tiny small cap listed company trying to show that our product can add value in the treatment of autism. Of course there will be some imperfections in trial design and methodology.
5. Sales to date are very slow. Clearly we have no real stockpile to work with as stated by management a few months ago, there may be only 1000 units of the new device produced by the end of 2018.
6. FDA application submitted within proposed timeframe. 6-12 month evaluation period. This will likely be a game changer if approved.
7. Management recently cited possible CR. Best they did not do this as it has further dampened sentiment. They should either do the CR or advise market that it is not needed. Hopefully the pending 4C will add some light on this.
LOOKING FORWARD
1.Management have been reasonable to date, certainly not perfect, but there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes. Some criticism here unjustified, but this is inevitable given everyone is in the red.
2. We have had just a couple of months of sales and we are at the very start of the product life cycle. The impatient SH's will demand much more but the realists know that marketing a product from scratch simply takes time. A suitable time frame to evaluate the product potential success will be 12-18 months from now.
3. If the company can sell just 5000 devices a year, this will amount to in excess of $5,000,000 profit per annum. Not unrealistic in the medium term.
4. Australian re-imbursement will definitely help sales in australia. Patience will be needed.
5. If just one of our distributers can gain traction, I am sure others will start to follow.
6. The potential applications of the device will be more evident in the next 6 months as other branches of medicine investigate its use in Alzheimer's disease, ADD etc. Any success here will be a bonus
7. Autism is a niche market but Mente is simply the only in Home device to show a benefit for children with autism.
GLTA. I think this will take a little time to grow but there might be some great surprises along the way.
