That is fair value and a fair price - decent bags from current levels.
Hostile won’t happen, can’t get enough on market to make a difference in time either. Only a friendly offer at premium could workGalena have one of the highest quality projects and PFS metrics I have seen in a long time. An NPV of +AUD$500m and IRR of 50% with mining likely to start in less than 2 handfuls of months with a MC of sub $70m is absurd and indeed shows the gap in the market which has been created by recent hot sectors since 2016. We are going to have the highest grade Lead concentrate in the World with next to 0% Zinc i.e gross cash costs for customers smelting drops significantly = a scramble to secure our product offtake within the next few months Before DFS. What do I mean by this? Well, Once DFS is out there is basically no bank out there who will deny giving us project capital, there is no way a LT Offtaker is going to want to wait and lose more and more leverage as time goes by. I’ve seen a number of deals and propositions where an Offtaker will take an escrowed equity position, pre-pay and/or organise debt solution with attractive rates. It is quite a common deal BUT the likelihood of it happening with Galena is significant due to said Lead concentrate metrics - Grade, Zinc Levels, Best in the World, smelter OPEX savings. I haven’t seen a company with a better leveraging scenario in my investing lifetime so I am anticipating a premium deal with one of the nine suitors making an offer we can’t refuse!
GL Galena Holders
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- Ann: Galena Launches Abra Project Definitive Feasibility Study
Ann: Galena Launches Abra Project Definitive Feasibility Study, page-24
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