Hi
@Thanky
DSE runs on a Jan-Dec financial year. Not sure if you were suggesting profitability for FY2018 ending in Dec or normal FY ending in June 2019?
I actually had a bit of a look and I think it is an outside chance that FY2018 ending in December will result in a small positive overall EBITDA and a very small pulled back net loss after depreciation and amortization.
What we know:
H1 2018
Revenue: $1,913,476
COGS: - $385,814
Gross Profit:
$1,527,662
Other Expenses: - $2,262,349
Minus interest rev - $35,120
EBITDA:
- $769,806
Add back interest $35,120
Dep & Amortization -$101,993
Net Loss:
- $836,680
-----------------------
What we can estimate for H2 2018:
Quarter 3 Revenue (Should be reasonably accurate as we have some figures to work with)
July - $438,000 (422k PU x $1.04 ARPU)
August - $552,000 (600k PU x $0.92 ARPU)
September - $690,000 (750k PU x $0.92 ARPU)
Total Q3 Rev - $1,680,000 x GP Margin of 78% = Gross Profit of
$1,310,400
Quarter 4 Revenue (my own estimates - this will be far less accurate)
October $759,000 (825k PU x $0.92 ARPU)
November $828,000 (900k PU x $0.92 ARPU)
December $920,000 (1Mil PU x $0.92 ARPU)
Q4 Rev - $2,507,000 x GP Margin of 80% (Margin is expected to improve) = Gross Profit of
$2,005,600
So H2 2018:
Revenue: $4,187,000
COGS: - $871,000
Gross Profit:
$3,316,000
Other expenses: - $2,500,000 (Guesstimate. Increase of approx $250k due to additional staff)
EBITDA:
$816,000
Dep & Amortization: - $100,000 (left it stable)
Net Profit for Half:
$716,000
Putting that all together for the full FY2018:
Revenue = $6,100,476
COGS = $1,256,814
Gross Profit = $4,843,662
Expenses = $4,762,349
Minus interest rev of - $35,120
FY2018 EBITDA = $46,193 - slight positive
Add back interest rev of $35120
Dep & Amortization: $201,993
FY2018 Net Loss = -$120,680 - slight negative
So the second half of the year has the potential to wipe out the losses of the first half of the year.
That would leave the year ending with about 1 million paid users and an
ARR of $11mil.
There are obviously a number of variables (PU Growth, Churn, GM, ARPU, expenses) that can significantly change the outcomes positively or negatively; especially the more forward looking numbers I've thrown up for Oct, Nov and Dec but it gives an idea of where I see things at by the end of the year. The goal of 1 mil paid users by year end might be a bit ambitious and will depend on how long it takes for these new bigger partners to start flowing through.
Will be interesting to have a look at these numbers and compare them to the actuals.
(20min delay)
