CTP 1.92% 5.1¢ central petroleum limited

Ann: Palm Valley PV13 Encounters Strong Gas Flows, page-52

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  1. 483 Posts.
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    I had some free time in the office today and put together a graphic - inspiration from Otto Energy, which has a similar chart in their recent presentation.  Otto presented on a market cap basis rather than economic value basis as I have done below.  A few points:

    - Limited to main oilers that I follow.  Will expand later, if useful.
    - EV calculated at 10/10/2018 market information with 30 June 2018 debt.
    - BOEPD calculated as 12 month run rate to 30/06/2018.
    - Bubble size indicates 2P reserves on boe basis from Company reserve statements made at 30 June 2018 (i.e both gas and oil)
    - SXY and COE are the gas giants with the market pricing their reserves accordingly.  COE also has significant near term production of c. 30 PJ in FY2020.
    - Interesting to note that there is a clear valuation trend of the juniors modelled based production rates.
    - I have added "CTP phase 1" (41 tj/d) and "CTP phase 2" (54 tj/d) to show where we will soon be (fingers crossed).  Although we are mixing gas/oil valuations here, to me it indicates a value gap.   Will derisk as we prove up PV and the commercial results of NGP?



    Cheers.
 
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