SL1 (ASX) Ann: Macy Scoping Study Update

Originally posted by Michaeljob ↑

Oct 10 (Reuters)

Shanghai zinc jumped more than 2 percent on Wednesday, hitting its highest in almost four months as output cuts in China lifted the market although prices in London ticked lower after rallying in the last session.

London copper eased after climbing almost 2 percent on Tuesday on tightening world supplies.

ZINC: The most-traded zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 2.3 percent higher at 22,935 yuan ($3,314.35) a tonne, after earlier rising to 23,110 yuan a tonne, its loftiest since June 15. Three-month zinc on the London Metal Exchange was largely unchanged.

COPPER: LME copper shed 0.2 percent to $6,282 a tonne while Shanghai copper finished up 0.9 percent at 50,770 yuan a tonne.

INVENTORIES: “Copper inventories have been falling since March, zinc since June...,” Standard Chartered bank said in a note. “Macro headwinds have weighed on supportive fundamentals.”

CUTBACKS: Production cutbacks at China’s zinc smelters in response to tighter environmental checks and weaker profits have tightened supply.

DEMAND: China accounts for nearly half of global refined zinc production of about 13.5 million tonnes. It is also the largest consumer of the metal.

STOCKS: Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell below 200,000 tonnes from more than 250,000 tonnes in August and are nearing 10-year lows. MZNSTX-TOTAL

SHANGHAI: Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange storehouses are at 29,204 tonnes, the lowest since 2007. ZN-STX-SGH

DEMAND: Demand for refined zinc will exceed supply by 322,000 tonnes this year and 72,000 tonnes in 2019, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said on Monday.

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Looking at the historical zinc price movement compared to warehouse levels, back in 2006 prices increased by ~$1.60 usd/pd over 4 years, with the price rise beginning about 3 years before warehouse levels bottomed out. If history repeats, we should see a similar increase from around 0.7 (2015) to $2.30 usd/pd over the next year or so

Ann: Macy Scoping Study Update, page-262