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Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 5-7 Oct, page-22

  1. 1,211 Posts.
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    Hey all,

    Oil still looks set to continue higher,

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 44 cents to $74.77 a barrel. It was on track for a weekly gain of about two per cent.
    Brent crude futures lost nine cents to $84.49 a barrel. The contract was on course for a rise of around two per cent for the week.


    “Iranian exports could fall below one million barrels per day in November,” US bank Jefferies said.
    The bank said there was enough oil to meet demand, but “global spare capacity is dwindling to the lowest level that we can document... meaning any further supply disruptions would be difficult for the market to manage – and could lead to spiking crude oil prices.”



    Does anyone have some good producer or developer oil stock recommendations?
    - Looking to add 1 or 2 to my portfolio.


    I been in and out of FAR, has lot of shares on issue that may be keeping SP stagnate, drilling coming up soon with results due before years end with a high success potential.
    There are also a few other price catalyst as well.
    Should definitely be a trade in it a bit closer to the drilling and results date.

    Chart looks pretty pretty good, just sort of trading in range here.
    I imagine it will break out of range when drilling is announced.

    SEA - chart looks good but might wait for a pull back, haven't gone through all the FA yet.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 12.00.18 pm.png

    Brent oil commodity chart
    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 1.34.34 pm.png



    Uranium

    My stand out picks for a Uranium play is Boss Resources (BOE), or Energy Fuels Corp (UUUU) on the NYSE.

    zxxzz.png

    - Great management,
    - A+ team assembled with all solid Uranium mining/sales experience to put BOE into production as fast as possible.
    - Majority of the team have all worked previously together in past Uranium roles.

    Major share holders
    - Grant Davey (director) - 11.2%
    - Paradice Investment Management  - 9.87%
    - Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd - 8.39% Top 20 - 55%

    First player advantage to a rising Uranium price
    - It usually takes 10 years from discovery to mining for a Uranium company.
    - BOE has already $170M of established infrastructure - power, plant, roads, airstrip, camp and water.
    - Only 1 of 5 fully permitted uranium mines in Australia with an export licence of 3.3M lbs

    Cash
    - $16mil+ in the bank
    - CAPEX debt mandate for up to US$65M with Tribeca

    Resource
    - 63.3M lbs
    - Currently drilling (ahead of schedule) to expand the resource in excess of 100M+ lbs

    Costs
    - On par with the lowest cost producers in the world, AISC $24.
    (majority of other uranium mines are $50+)

    Without filling up the page there are plenty of price catalyst coming up with a strict timeline schedule that management have been completing and mostly ahead of schedule!

    Currently in accumulation after the first  run.
    With a large amount of shares traded around the 7c mark.
    7c - 7.4c is acting as a very strong support area and should be a pretty safe buying area. (Paradise Investment entry price)
    Tight trading range, looking coiled for a move.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 12.58.36 pm.png

    Uranium Spot - Chart
    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 1.41.29 pm.png



    Gold

    I've been looking for another goldy or 2 to add if anyone has any recommendations they want to throw at me...?
    Currently in AMI and super spec gold producer NIU.
    Started looking at GCY @roberter1 the other week, fairly high AISC but if gold reverses should be a good leveraged play.


    AMI is breaking out of it's beautiful uptrend channel line.
    A rising Gold price should see it start a new channel above, (hopefully   if not it will most probably dip back down and bounce along the channel.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 1.09.07 pm.png


    Coal

    Both thermal and coking coal stocks have been quite good this year.

    TER and WHC have been very nice plays.
    I've been following TER since mid 30s but for some reason or another just never seemed to pull the trigger on this one ha..

    TER has also broken out of it's trading channel.
    Although volume has been decreasing steadily as it's been rising so I am waiting on a pull back here.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 1.21.30 pm.png


    Last is Rare Earth Elements

    Rare Earths could be set for a massive price spike if the US-China Trade Wars continue.
    China produces 80-90% of the worlds Rare Earths and has a solid strangle hold on the industry and the rest of the world.
    If Trump keeps pushing with the trade tariffs, China coule retaliate with restricting supply of Rare Earths.
    This is something they've done it in the past.


    LYC is the only competition and alternative outside of China.

    LYC has been a downward trend since the new prime minster of Malaysian (Mahathir Mohammad) was sworn in to government on the 10/05/18.
    Some MPs inside Mahathirs ruling party have been openly hostile against Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia.

    Last week there were media reports that the Lynas, LAMP was going to have a review committee review it's operations in Malaysia.
    Media reports were also circulating that MP and openly hostile critic of LYC, Fuziah Salleh was going to chair the committee...


    A very bullish statement for LYC was released on Friday afternoon by the prime minster, Mahathir Mohammad

    "the review of Lynas plant wont be dictated by views of MPs Fuziah Salleh and Wong Tack"
    and that
    "Malaysia pledges fair review of Lynas plant after pleas from CEO"


    Reading between the lines here it appears Fuziah Salleh jumped the gun and shot her mouth off to media a little too early before the review was officially announced.

    After media reports of the review committee CEO of Lynas, Amanda Lacaze, wrote an open letter to the government, specifying that Lynas hadn't been officially contacted about the review and also that they be given a fair and just review (given that the supposed head of the committee was an open anti Lynas activist.

    I believe the prime minster has pulled rank and put his MPs in place given his statements.
    I also believe that given Lynas past performance in the country that they will pass the review with flying colours.
    ssd.png

    LYC Chart

    - As you can see the top pin bar candle and start of the down trend was when Mahathir Mohammad was sworn into government.
    - The big red candle fall was when media reports of a review committee started circulating.
    - Friday afternoons announcement by the government signalled very strong buying all the way up to close of the day.

    I believe with the news being late in the day and still yet to be fully processed, most investors waiting on the side lines missed the initial run, this is indicated by the average volume.
    The wide spread candle on average volume may also be signifying that there aren't many/any sellers left and price was able to move up quite easily.

    I'm expecting a decent re-rating next week as then the news will be fully processed.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 2.00.58 pm.png
    Last edited by radx: 06/10/18
 
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