News: SIV Silver Chef Posts FY Total Revenue Of $287.1 Million, page-16

Excellent analysis CaptainBarnacles. Right way to look at things (mostly) IMO, but I'm not as bearish on the assumptions. As a broad approximation, its not too unreasonable to estimate underlying Hospitality being close to 2017 result (essentially more "normalised" after 2018 impairments and write-downs. That gives us about $42m in PBT (before admin  & before sub debt) . If we assume $0 from GoGetta on a go forward (unlikely as its running off smoothly, so its likely to be something), but subtract c $20m in admin (down from $26m after GoGetta) gives us about $22m. Given that there is $40 m of equity tied up in GoGetta, they will get back $10-$20 over the next year, and if the sell the receivables as part of this whole exercise, it could be higher. Therefore I estimate that they will end up raising, say, $30m of sub-debt at, as you say, around 15% ($4.5m interest pa) leaves us with $17.5m pre tax or $12.25 NPAT. This is an RoE of c12% and a PE at current rates of around 6.5. A post restructuring rerating and relatively unchallenging better than expected PBT could easily see the SP back around $3.00, IMO.

Anyway, they have another 6 months to get sub-debt or crap raise, which suggests to me that the banks aren't panicking and are happy with the write-downs they have made and the cashflows to the firm.